We are currently witnessing the largest demographic shift in American religion since the decades following the Civil War. Nearly 40 million Americans (approximately 15% of the population) have ceased attending church in the past 25 years, a precipitous and accelerating decline. That’s what authors and pastors Jim Davis and Michael Graham tell us in their book, The Great Dechurching. Davis and Graham commissioned Dr. Ryan Burge, professor of political science at Eastern Illinois University, to do a peer-reviewed study on the “dechurching” phenomenon using computer analysis and artificial intelligence. The results were alarming.
Through their research they identified four distinct groups of dechurched evangelicals and represented them in the book using composite characters that function as case studies. There’s Tom, the 20-something-year-old “cultural Christian,” who stopped going to church shortly after college and shows little signs of any vital spiritual life or orthodox views. Hannah, is the “dechurched mainstream evangelical” who fell out of the habit of attending church after having twins at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. Then there’s Tammy, a middle-aged “ex-vangelical” single mom who has experienced significant church hurt. We also have Jeremiah, a “dechurched BIPOC” evangelical, whose myriad of reasons for leaving the church were compounded by the fact that it seemed irrelevant as he launched his aspiring, middle-class professional life. Finally, there’s Conor, an uprooted blue-collar Bostonian who found his way to Tennessee and who is one of the scores of dechurched mainline Protestants and/or Catholics.
As someone that oversees student ministry, one discussion that caught my eye was on the “missed generational hand-off.” People are most likely to dechurch in high school, college, or the years following college. Unfortunately, 68% of dechurched evangelicals said that their parents played a role in their decision to leave church. Some of the reasons stated included: parents’ emphasis on culture wars (14%); lack of love, joy, gentleness, and kindness (14%); inability to listen (14%); inability to engage with other viewpoints charitably instead of denigrating them (14%); and their attitudes towards race (13%).
Additionally, the authors note that “while it is true that the secular left has been a source of erosion for congregations, a new secular right is on the rise with a strong focus on nationalism, individualism, law and order, immigration fears, and populist right-wing ideas.” Also contrary to popular belief, more educated people are actually more likely to stay in church.
The authors write that the dechurching phenomenon “will impact both the institutions of our country and the very fabric of our society within our lifetime,” noting that religiously affiliated nonprofits make up about 40 percent of the social safety net in America.
How Do We Move Forward?
What is the church to do in the face of all this? While prospects look bleak, the authors note that there are still reasons for hope. 51% of dechurched evangelicals said that they would be willing to give church a try again. Many of them even still have mostly orthodox beliefs. They just need a friend to extend an invitation to them.
In fact, one of the common themes that I noticed was the importance of relationships. Some people just need a nudge. Others require more time and intentionality. But regardless, relationships are the key, especially for those that have been hurt by the church. It got me thinking of people in my life that I could be inviting into the church community.
This often requires relational wisdom, a topic which the authors tackle in chapter 9. This includes becoming better listeners and embodying a “quiet, calm curiosity” as opposed to defensiveness (what Mark Sayers would call a “non-anxious presence”). Davis and Graham write that “fewer people are asking, ‘Is Jesus true?’ and more are asking, ‘Is Jesus good?’ and ‘Is Jesus beautiful?’” This must be embodied by believers, both individually and corporately.
Changing the Paradigm
Some of my favorite quotes come from chapter 14, “Embracing Exile.” Christians in the United States had grown comfortable with being in positions of privilege and even power, a convenience not promised to us in the Bible. This has produced some good things, to be sure. But it has also resulted in nominal or cultural Christians, so-called “celebrity pastors,” and enmeshment in partisan politics. And as the authors put it, “Churches may have been full in the twentieth century, but that doesn’t mean they were full of Christians.”
The church’s witness in a post-Christian society will require a new paradigm shift and a change of mentality, what many refer to as “exile.” This is how Peter refers to the people of God in 1 Peter 1:1. Like the Jewish exiles in Babylon in Jeremiah 29, we are called to seek the good of our communities and society. The authors keenly observe that although Christians are the “salt of the earth” (which has a preserving function in the world), this has often happened most effectively when the people of God have been on the margins of society rather than in the halls of power.
In fact, it was “Christians” in positions of power who often promoted injustices to Native Americans, slavery, and segregation. Despite seemingly being on society’s fringes, by a few generations, the early church had spread like wildfire throughout the Roman Empire and was challenging its cultural assumptions. “The goal isn’t to make us a Christian nation but to see how Christians impact the culture we live in,” the authors explain.
Unfortunately, the study results reveal that many see the political partisanship of evangelical Christians as a thinly veiled grab for power, and it has pushed many people away from Jesus rather than toward him. The authors propose that we “need to embrace and display that we have a greater citizenship that transcends our political views and national identity.”
What if we took a page out of the early church’s playbook? What if the church was known more for its humble, self-sacrificial love instead of grasping for political power?
“We can be the city on the hill without being on Capitol Hill,” Davis and Graham write. “We can be salt without being in power. Whatever happens to the culture in the United States, the kingdom of God will be fine.”